A new opinion poll shows the relative popularity of parties has stayed roughly the same over the past few weeks, while the number of undecided voters has shrunk. Moderate Islamist party Ennahdha leads with 25% of intended votes. The center-left Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) has 16% of intended votes, and their center-left rivals, Ettakatol, earned 14%.
On October 23rd, Tunisians will elect a Constituent Assembly, and a ban on opinion polls about the elections will be enforced starting September 30th.
The survey was conducted following the request of Tunisia’s Observatory of the Democratic Transition, headed by the famous university professor and writer Hammadi Redissi and funded by the German institute “Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung”, in partnership with Al Maghreb newspaper and Nessma TV channel.
According to the results of the poll, two-thirds of the respondents decided to vote, 17% are quasi-sure that they will vote, meaning that the total amount of polled people that intend to vote is 83%.
When being asked to which extent they are optimistic regarding Tunisia’s democratic transition, 20% of the respondents replied that they are very optimistic, 35% said that they are relatively optimistic, while a high amount of 44% stated that they are pessimistic.
Approximately one-fifth (21%) of the respondents are interested in politics whereas 51% stated that they do not care.
Regarding parity, a masculine mentality dominates almost all democratic parties and independents – except for the Modernist Democratic Pole (PDM) and Afek Tounes. As a matter of fact, female presidents of the lists do not exceed 5% – despite the fact that 71% of respondents do not mind having a list headed by a woman.
Around one-quarter of respondents (26%) have not decided for whom to vote. Among voters who have a preference, party support breaks down as follows:
-Ennahdha: 25% -Progressive Democratic Party (PDP): 16% -Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties (FTDL or Ettakatol): 14% -Congress Party for the Republic (CPR): 8% -Afek Tounes: 3% -Former Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) parties: 9% -Tunisian Workers' Communist Party (PCOT): 3%
When being asked which political currents they would like to see represented and whether they are sure about their choice, 35% of the polled people responded that they intend to vote for independents, 29% plan to vote for Islamists, and 9% for Liberals. Approximately one-third (31%) of the respondents decided to vote for an independent candidate, but almost half of them (44%) stated that they might change their mind, and 21% did not state their voting preference.